There is a lot of uncertainty in Alabama's weather pattern for the week.
We will start off with today, lots of moisture in the atmosphere including a cold front draped over the southeast from about Nashville to Shreveport, LA. This front is already affecting parts of north and central Alabama and looks to become stationary somewhere in Central Alabama, probably between Birmingham and Montgomery producing numerous showers and thunderstorms north of the Wiregrass.
We are looking to be sandwiched in between the cold front storms moving in from the northwest and moisture from the Gulf. The bulk of our rain will develop along a weak sea breeze front. The front will affect Florida late morning or early afternoon then slowly move across south Georgia and Alabama late this afternoon. A lack of deep layer shear should limit any severe storm potential, however, the Storm Prediction Center does have parts of north and central Alabama under a marginal risk for severe weather due from that cold front sagging into the state.
For the Wiregrass, we will remain mostly dry until those late afternoon pop up showers from the gulf arrive. Rain chances will go up mid-week and our forecast will be very uncertain until we know exactly where Invest 93-L will land. Overcast skies and persistent rains Tuesday through Thursday will keep us cooler, highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Expect moderate chop on coastal lakes and bays with winds moving southeast at 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 4 feet.
All eyes are on the tropics this afternoon. The National Hurricane Center will send someone to fly over Invest 93-L to collect more data, we should know more after they do. So far the tropical disturbance has lacked a well-defined circulation and has been poorly organized but it is still developing, It could directly or indirectly affect our local weather for the next few days. Models continued to trend west this morning with what will likely be a Gulf Tropical Storm. Impacts will be felt along and east of the track.
The second area to watch, Invest 92-L will affect the Windward Islands and could affect the U.S. later on. An 'invest' labeled storm simply means that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring that particular area of disturbance for possible development into a tropical depression or storm.
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